Day 1114

Monday, February 1, 2016

And the winner is...

She will win in November.  After tonight, the race for president is down to five candidates:  Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio.

Hillary is the only main-stream establishment candidate left in the race.  Unless America decides to go extreme (which it won't), all she has to do is stay out of trouble, keep being reasonably aggressive and intelligent, show up, call out the nonsense, continue to play out a strong campaign with an optimistic message and pro-everyone agenda, and she will become the next United States president.  Don't get me wrong, I love Bernie, but he's no Obama and he might not compete as well as he needs to against any of the GOP candidates.  Were he somehow, by sheer miracle, to win the nomination, one interesting aspect would be the all-out extreme decision Americans would have regarding the direction of the country (two diametrically opposed directions I might add).  After New Hampshire, Bernie's momentum will fade and it should Hillary is the stronger candidate.  I am not happy with many of her positions, but she is pragmatic, strong, and knows how the game is played.  She is the GOP's worst nightmare, no matter what the GOP says.

Of the three GOP candidates remaining, all of them are seriously flawed.  I don't see the country embracing any of them, though the media will pretend it will be the closest election in American history.  I doubt it.  The GOP has not at all learned the lessons of eight and four years ago.  They continue to double down on social policies that are stuck in another century.  The party is in serious free fall.  Their only real hope is that the democrats choose Bernie Sanders as their nominee, which they won't. 

It's quite possible that Marco Rubio might pull it off as the new "establishment" candidate, even though he is a total disaster as a candidate, hitting way too few notes and sounding too strident and disingenuous 100% of the time.  I really cannot listen to this man more than a few minutes before wanting to change the channel.  Even Ted Cruz is easier to listen to, and that's saying something.  Ted Cruz reminds me of the examples used in Barbara Oakley's non-fiction novel Evil Genes when describing the attributes of a Machiavellian personality type.  This is who Ted Cruz is, a very dangerous troublemaker who gets along with no one yet somehow manages to attract enough followers to stay in the race.  He is the most dangerous national politician to have come along in years.  But he's so extreme that I just don't see the country being so duped. 

Then there's Donald Trump, the man who has thrown this election so completely out of whack.  He took a hit in Iowa tonight, but it might just be a momentary speed bump before his brand and wacky stage presence blows the other two out of the water.  He is extremely limited as a legitimate candidate, but it's possible, given the huge weaknesses of the two candidates he's running against, that The Donald might just pull out in front and stay there for the duration of the primaries.  Of the three GOP candidates remaining, I hope Donald Trump pulls it out (and that's saying a lot about the other two thoroughly reprehensible candidates). 

As of tonight, this election is Hillary's to lose.

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