Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Chapter Three (251 Days Until the 2020 Election)
The South Carolina debate happened tonight.
It was another shout-fest early on, but halfway through things settled down to a reasonably substantive debate/discussion. I'd say the smart money for Team Captain of Team Purple is Bernie, and in some ways I'm hoping he's able to solidify his nomination in order for us to move on to the next series of events, namely, a master game plan that features what Team Purple Op Ed maestro Tom Friedman penned in the NY Times today:
Dems, You Can Defeat Trump in a Landslide
Once the dust settles with our nominee, I hope we'll galvanize, strategize, and come together not only as a united party but a Super Hero Team of Rivals to create the landslide Friedman writes about.
My friend from 6th grade Jeff P. emailed this today:
This is a pretty decent piece:
Who Would Win a Trump Sanders election?
Uncertainty is high but I think the point about Sanders potentially pushing out educated whites who know his 60 trillion dollars worth of plans are either going nowhere or are going to be paid for by them is real. Educated white women in the suburbs is a pretty critical constituency that brought us the House in 2018 and inside the DCCC there is pure panic not just that Sanders loses but that he takes the House with him and we end up with nothing to block fascism. The panic Sanders will put into GOP land will also drive their turnout big time.
There is data to suggest Sanders gets Midwest working class whites that Trump won - but my worry is that is all theoretical and won;t hold up when the race card comes down hard. I've seen the focus groups - I'd rather bet on the Obama coalition and keeping educated whites than to chase working class white voters.
Possible Bernie can win WI, MI and PA? Yes - but that's a tough fight - it means one and only one route to victory. Bernie could mean CO is in play for them too. Bernie can't win FL, NC and AZ is likely only in play with a moderate I think (hard to see Kelly winning that Senate seat having to dodge questions about Bernie all fall). Bernie might put Stacey Abrams on the ticket to try to GA - but she lost that race statewide already in a race where Trump was not on ballot driving their base.
It's also not impossible Bernie could win ME2 (given his proximity), lose WI and we end up 268-268. Lot's of drama but we still likely lose in that scenario - the House breaks the tie but each state only gets one vote per delegation and GOP leads that 26-22.
Oh, and this is the new conversation: how will a potential pandemic impact the election:
Coronavirus May Disrupt the 2020 Election. We Need a Plan.
It was a timely email and much appreciated. Jeff and I have waged some intense email battles in the past, going back nearly 20 years when we took opposite sides of the second Iraq War. We disagreed on the Clinton/Obama nomination in 2008, but this election season we're side by side in total agreement that Trump, his Trumpists and his Agent Orange V. Putin must must must be defeated this November.
I responded to Jeff's email later in the day:
I've been looking forward to this update, so thank you, Jeff! The story in Wired is crucial and steps must be taken as the coronavirus could well be this year's great disrupter. The US is not adequately prepared for this potentially explosive pandemic. We'll see how fast Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar becomes the fall guy for Trump's incompetence. If the repatriation of the US Diamond Princess passengers is any indication of the top-tier organizational skills and decision making we're using in containing this virus, we're in shaky hands.
Thus far, we have at least two major containment side issues to worry about:
1. Action plan for addressing potential coronavirus pandemic as disrupter in November election, ptentially undermining voter turnout, and
2. Action plan for Trump removal from office if he loses reelection (because he absolutely will not willingly leave office if he loses...this should be treated as a given).
I'm sure there will be more side issues of the utmost importance between now and November. Jeff, please keep us abreast of them.
Now to Bernie. Had I been a participant in one of those focus groups only ten days ago, I would have quoted former McCain strategist and vehement anti-Trumpist Steve Schmidt ("In this country, a socialist loses to a sociopath every day of the week and twice on Sunday") and, among other reasons we've all shared and acknowledged, considered Bernie a non-option as Dem nominee. That was ten days ago. Now on the day of the SC debate and one week before Super Tuesday, I am skeptical that any other candidate can stop Bernie's momentum. Maybe Biden can, but the odds of that actually happening appear very low. Maybe Bloomberg can, but those odds appear even lower than Biden's odds. For all other candidates, I would put their odds in a box labeled "Pipe Dream." So basically, it's either Bernie, Biden or Bloomberg. Or brokered convention, but that feels suicidal, so I don't see a brokered convention playing out. We won't know for sure until a week from now, but I suspect Bernie's momentum is simply unstoppable and as a result will become the Dem nominee and unlikely savior of democracy in America. I never would have predicted nor imagined this ten days ago, but if that's the hand we're dealt, I'm 100% all in with Bernie and his rabid under-35 diehard supporters. They earned the nom if Bernie's the one. "I'm not givin' away...their...shot." With no other choice, I'll embrace it.
And whether moderate Dems and true Republican anti-Trumpists can admit as much 250 days before the great election of our lifetime, they will have no choice but to swallow the pill, no matter how socialistically sour, and embrace Bernie, too, because their choice is as binary as any choice we've ever faced: either Trump is stopped and removed from office, or he is not stopped and validated with a second term, allowing him a bottomless pit from which absolute power, absolute corruption, absolutely purging and absolute destruction will be administered with absolute conviction. Either we stop the inevitable reign of terror that comes from a malignant, increasingly paranoid, amoral narcisist reminiscent of Joseph Stalin in the 1930s, or we allow the US version of Stalin in the '30s to move forward with the blessing of the American People via the results of Presidential Election of 2020.
And if you think that's too hyperbolic to occur in this country, then you haven't been reading the daily newspapers or paying attention, because it's already happening.
Trump Demands 2 Liberal Justices Recuse Themselves From His Cases
Trump Accuses Schiff of Leaking Intelligence on Russia's 2020 Interference
Opinion: Awful new details about Trump's purge should alarm us all
Barr's internal reviews and re-investigations feed resentment, suspicion inside Justice Dept.
I'm finding the Gail Collins / Bret Stephens Conversation more of a must-read, because all of the anti-Trumpist Never-Bernies out there will at some point between now and Election Day need to make their own personal binary decision. We have 252 days to convince all anti-Trumpists, every single one of them, to vote for the Dem nominee, whoever he/she is. If it's Bernie, we all must vote for Bernie. Period. That includes Bret Stephens, Max Boot, Bill Kristol, George Will, and Mitt Romney. They're not there yet, but there's still time. 252 days is years and years away in political terms, and never more true than in 2020.
Opinion: Imagine Bernie Sanders in the Oval Office
Looking forward to the debate tonight.
Michael
Another dear friend of mine, Ron C., who I've also known since 6th grade, emailed,
Michael, I love how you started this conversation with, "How's everyone doing? Upbeat?"
and are now at, "...a bottomless pit from which absolute power, absolute corruption, absolutely purging and absolute destruction will be administered with absolute conviction."
I am deeply concerned about Bernie getting the nomination. I'm pretty convinced there is a large group of moderates who would vote for Warren, Biden, or Bloomberg but will stay home for Bernie. Yes, Bernie has a large and very loud coalition of under 25s. Exactly the demographic who historically doesn't actually show up on election day. On the other end of the spectrum, we have a set of declared "Never Trumpers" who would likely break their definition of "never" given the "socialist or sociopath" option.
I will continue to support Warren until the day she's no longer an option - I firmly believe she's both our best chance to take back the presidency and right the wrongs of the past three years.
I wrote a response, but didn't send. I don't want to bombard my Bellingham gang with too many emails, at least not yet. Maybe 30 days or 10 days before the election, but not 252 days before the election. Here wrote I wrote back to Ron:
Haha, good call, Ron. It didn’t take long for my true hand to be revealed, and yet, like you and everyone else, I’m coming to terms with our present state of affairs, which has rapidly accelerated in urgency and fear since the week of Trump’s acquittal and the Iowa debacle. The fluidity of current events and our 252-day ticking clock has impacted all of us in different ways. The same is true for national figures, writers, personalities, strategists, and coalitions currently forming to decide the fate of the country in November. Just last week, Thomas Friedman of the New York Times sent out an S.O.S. emergency call to Mike Bloomberg to step in as savior to defeat Trump. Now, a week later, Friedman has dramatically revised his game plan to a Team of Rivals unity playbook that serves to defeat Trump/Trumpism. I’m on the same page Friedman’s on and everyone else who recognizes the titanic-size iceberg we’re heading toward if Trump wins re-election. For my part, I’m channeling my inner Risk-crazed competitiveness against Team Orange with the kind of maniacal intensity that throws opponents on the defensive and increases the odds of victory. If another million or so like-minded Risk-crazed believers in democracy harness a similar manic energy against Trump and the Trumpists, maybe just maybe it might not matter who our nominee actually is. We all have our skill set to bring to the table and all have a voice to include in our Team Purple coalition. Since so much of the next 250 days will be exasperating and awash with fear, worry, and overwhelming anxiety, I take comfort in our numbers and growing national coalition. The metaphor I’m using, more as personal motivation mixed with nostalgia, is a grand two-team national Risk game in which the good guys (us and the US as Team Purple) are up against the bad guys (Trump, the Trumpists and Putin/Russia as Team Orange). It’s easy for me to find inspiration with the mindset that all of us are on the same team, fighting in unison for the principles of our rotten-to-the-core yet exceptional, diverse, grand and glorious country. I see this mindset expanding exponentially to incorporate what Thomas Friedman is articulating in today’s piece. We’re going to win this thing, no matter who our nominee is. This is our moment, so let’s go ahead and meet it.
Enjoy tonight’s debate,
Michael
FYI, rotten to the core, because as I've been learning these few years while Trump has been in office, our American history as been awash, and I mean awash, in Emmett Till moments. Speaking of which, I watched this the other night. Wow.
Chapter Three (251 Days Until the 2020 Election)
The South Carolina debate happened tonight.
It was another shout-fest early on, but halfway through things settled down to a reasonably substantive debate/discussion. I'd say the smart money for Team Captain of Team Purple is Bernie, and in some ways I'm hoping he's able to solidify his nomination in order for us to move on to the next series of events, namely, a master game plan that features what Team Purple Op Ed maestro Tom Friedman penned in the NY Times today:
Once the dust settles with our nominee, I hope we'll galvanize, strategize, and come together not only as a united party but a Super Hero Team of Rivals to create the landslide Friedman writes about.
My friend from 6th grade Jeff P. emailed this today:
This is a pretty decent piece:
Who Would Win a Trump Sanders election?
Uncertainty is high but I think the point about Sanders potentially pushing out educated whites who know his 60 trillion dollars worth of plans are either going nowhere or are going to be paid for by them is real. Educated white women in the suburbs is a pretty critical constituency that brought us the House in 2018 and inside the DCCC there is pure panic not just that Sanders loses but that he takes the House with him and we end up with nothing to block fascism. The panic Sanders will put into GOP land will also drive their turnout big time.
There is data to suggest Sanders gets Midwest working class whites that Trump won - but my worry is that is all theoretical and won;t hold up when the race card comes down hard. I've seen the focus groups - I'd rather bet on the Obama coalition and keeping educated whites than to chase working class white voters.
Possible Bernie can win WI, MI and PA? Yes - but that's a tough fight - it means one and only one route to victory. Bernie could mean CO is in play for them too. Bernie can't win FL, NC and AZ is likely only in play with a moderate I think (hard to see Kelly winning that Senate seat having to dodge questions about Bernie all fall). Bernie might put Stacey Abrams on the ticket to try to GA - but she lost that race statewide already in a race where Trump was not on ballot driving their base.
It's also not impossible Bernie could win ME2 (given his proximity), lose WI and we end up 268-268. Lot's of drama but we still likely lose in that scenario - the House breaks the tie but each state only gets one vote per delegation and GOP leads that 26-22.
Oh, and this is the new conversation: how will a potential pandemic impact the election:
Coronavirus May Disrupt the 2020 Election. We Need a Plan.
It was a timely email and much appreciated. Jeff and I have waged some intense email battles in the past, going back nearly 20 years when we took opposite sides of the second Iraq War. We disagreed on the Clinton/Obama nomination in 2008, but this election season we're side by side in total agreement that Trump, his Trumpists and his Agent Orange V. Putin must must must be defeated this November.
I responded to Jeff's email later in the day:
I've been looking forward to this update, so thank you, Jeff! The story in Wired is crucial and steps must be taken as the coronavirus could well be this year's great disrupter. The US is not adequately prepared for this potentially explosive pandemic. We'll see how fast Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar becomes the fall guy for Trump's incompetence. If the repatriation of the US Diamond Princess passengers is any indication of the top-tier organizational skills and decision making we're using in containing this virus, we're in shaky hands.
Thus far, we have at least two major containment side issues to worry about:
1. Action plan for addressing potential coronavirus pandemic as disrupter in November election, ptentially undermining voter turnout, and
2. Action plan for Trump removal from office if he loses reelection (because he absolutely will not willingly leave office if he loses...this should be treated as a given).
I'm sure there will be more side issues of the utmost importance between now and November. Jeff, please keep us abreast of them.
Now to Bernie. Had I been a participant in one of those focus groups only ten days ago, I would have quoted former McCain strategist and vehement anti-Trumpist Steve Schmidt ("In this country, a socialist loses to a sociopath every day of the week and twice on Sunday") and, among other reasons we've all shared and acknowledged, considered Bernie a non-option as Dem nominee. That was ten days ago. Now on the day of the SC debate and one week before Super Tuesday, I am skeptical that any other candidate can stop Bernie's momentum. Maybe Biden can, but the odds of that actually happening appear very low. Maybe Bloomberg can, but those odds appear even lower than Biden's odds. For all other candidates, I would put their odds in a box labeled "Pipe Dream." So basically, it's either Bernie, Biden or Bloomberg. Or brokered convention, but that feels suicidal, so I don't see a brokered convention playing out. We won't know for sure until a week from now, but I suspect Bernie's momentum is simply unstoppable and as a result will become the Dem nominee and unlikely savior of democracy in America. I never would have predicted nor imagined this ten days ago, but if that's the hand we're dealt, I'm 100% all in with Bernie and his rabid under-35 diehard supporters. They earned the nom if Bernie's the one. "I'm not givin' away...their...shot." With no other choice, I'll embrace it.
And whether moderate Dems and true Republican anti-Trumpists can admit as much 250 days before the great election of our lifetime, they will have no choice but to swallow the pill, no matter how socialistically sour, and embrace Bernie, too, because their choice is as binary as any choice we've ever faced: either Trump is stopped and removed from office, or he is not stopped and validated with a second term, allowing him a bottomless pit from which absolute power, absolute corruption, absolutely purging and absolute destruction will be administered with absolute conviction. Either we stop the inevitable reign of terror that comes from a malignant, increasingly paranoid, amoral narcisist reminiscent of Joseph Stalin in the 1930s, or we allow the US version of Stalin in the '30s to move forward with the blessing of the American People via the results of Presidential Election of 2020.
And if you think that's too hyperbolic to occur in this country, then you haven't been reading the daily newspapers or paying attention, because it's already happening.
Trump Demands 2 Liberal Justices Recuse Themselves From His Cases
Trump Accuses Schiff of Leaking Intelligence on Russia's 2020 Interference
Opinion: Awful new details about Trump's purge should alarm us all
Barr's internal reviews and re-investigations feed resentment, suspicion inside Justice Dept.
I'm finding the Gail Collins / Bret Stephens Conversation more of a must-read, because all of the anti-Trumpist Never-Bernies out there will at some point between now and Election Day need to make their own personal binary decision. We have 252 days to convince all anti-Trumpists, every single one of them, to vote for the Dem nominee, whoever he/she is. If it's Bernie, we all must vote for Bernie. Period. That includes Bret Stephens, Max Boot, Bill Kristol, George Will, and Mitt Romney. They're not there yet, but there's still time. 252 days is years and years away in political terms, and never more true than in 2020.
Opinion: Imagine Bernie Sanders in the Oval Office
Looking forward to the debate tonight.
Michael
Another dear friend of mine, Ron C., who I've also known since 6th grade, emailed,
Michael, I love how you started this conversation with, "How's everyone doing? Upbeat?"
and are now at, "...a bottomless pit from which absolute power, absolute corruption, absolutely purging and absolute destruction will be administered with absolute conviction."
I am deeply concerned about Bernie getting the nomination. I'm pretty convinced there is a large group of moderates who would vote for Warren, Biden, or Bloomberg but will stay home for Bernie. Yes, Bernie has a large and very loud coalition of under 25s. Exactly the demographic who historically doesn't actually show up on election day. On the other end of the spectrum, we have a set of declared "Never Trumpers" who would likely break their definition of "never" given the "socialist or sociopath" option.
I will continue to support Warren until the day she's no longer an option - I firmly believe she's both our best chance to take back the presidency and right the wrongs of the past three years.
I wrote a response, but didn't send. I don't want to bombard my Bellingham gang with too many emails, at least not yet. Maybe 30 days or 10 days before the election, but not 252 days before the election. Here wrote I wrote back to Ron:
Haha, good call, Ron. It didn’t take long for my true hand to be revealed, and yet, like you and everyone else, I’m coming to terms with our present state of affairs, which has rapidly accelerated in urgency and fear since the week of Trump’s acquittal and the Iowa debacle. The fluidity of current events and our 252-day ticking clock has impacted all of us in different ways. The same is true for national figures, writers, personalities, strategists, and coalitions currently forming to decide the fate of the country in November. Just last week, Thomas Friedman of the New York Times sent out an S.O.S. emergency call to Mike Bloomberg to step in as savior to defeat Trump. Now, a week later, Friedman has dramatically revised his game plan to a Team of Rivals unity playbook that serves to defeat Trump/Trumpism. I’m on the same page Friedman’s on and everyone else who recognizes the titanic-size iceberg we’re heading toward if Trump wins re-election. For my part, I’m channeling my inner Risk-crazed competitiveness against Team Orange with the kind of maniacal intensity that throws opponents on the defensive and increases the odds of victory. If another million or so like-minded Risk-crazed believers in democracy harness a similar manic energy against Trump and the Trumpists, maybe just maybe it might not matter who our nominee actually is. We all have our skill set to bring to the table and all have a voice to include in our Team Purple coalition. Since so much of the next 250 days will be exasperating and awash with fear, worry, and overwhelming anxiety, I take comfort in our numbers and growing national coalition. The metaphor I’m using, more as personal motivation mixed with nostalgia, is a grand two-team national Risk game in which the good guys (us and the US as Team Purple) are up against the bad guys (Trump, the Trumpists and Putin/Russia as Team Orange). It’s easy for me to find inspiration with the mindset that all of us are on the same team, fighting in unison for the principles of our rotten-to-the-core yet exceptional, diverse, grand and glorious country. I see this mindset expanding exponentially to incorporate what Thomas Friedman is articulating in today’s piece. We’re going to win this thing, no matter who our nominee is. This is our moment, so let’s go ahead and meet it.
Enjoy tonight’s debate,
Michael
FYI, rotten to the core, because as I've been learning these few years while Trump has been in office, our American history as been awash, and I mean awash, in Emmett Till moments. Speaking of which, I watched this the other night. Wow.
The Democratic candidates are carrying on as if this was a regular cycle of federal elections. It isn't. While they're behaving like a group of school children squabbling over who gets to put the coal in the snowman's eye socket, the country is being systematically stripped of its democratic institutions. Does anyone remember a president who has attacked the Supreme Court quite like Daffy Don has done? Democrats, get your shit together! Stop acting like this is a normal election. Stop supplying Trump with the ammo to kill you with! WTF are you doing?
ReplyDeleteOnce voters pop the ego balloons from all the candidates who have no chance and all but the nominee drop out, a grand coming together is likely to happen. At least I'm hoping!
ReplyDelete